So far, President Donald Trump‘s trade tariffs have barely touched consumer prices, giving the White House a reason to claim victory over early fears of an inflation spike.
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However, some economists argue that the real impact will only be a few months away, and this is going to have a highly impactful effect.
In a note shared Monday, Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng indicated that through June, U.S. consumers had shouldered just 22% of the tariff costs, with U.S. businesses absorbing 64% and foreign exporters covering 14%.
That balance, however, is likely to shift sharply.
By October, she expects that split to look very different: consumers picking up 67% of the tab, exporters 25%, and U.S. businesses just 8%.
Brace For Tariffs Impact: Consumers Will Pay More
So far, the 9 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate this year has lowered import prices by about 1.3%. By the time the expected 14-point increase for 2025 is in place, import prices could be down 3.7%.
But cheaper import prices don’t necessarily mean more …