The President and founder of Bianco Research LLC., Jim Bianco, is sounding the alarm on inflation, pointing to a recent surge in a real-time inflation metric as a challenge to hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In a series of posts on X, he argued that recent data, combined with larger structural changes in the economy, suggest the U.S. may be settling into a new normal where a 4% neutral interest rate is the standard.
Truflation Inflation Index Flashes A Red Flag
Bianco’s immediate concern was sparked by the Truflation U.S. Inflation Index, an independent gauge that provides daily updates. On Aug. 31st, the index hit 2.31%, a seven-month high that he said was “flashing a yellow to red flag on inflation.”
While the index was revised down to 2.00% the following day—a regular occurrence at the start of a month—the initial spike highlighted the renewed upward pressure on prices. Bianco questioned whether the Fed could proceed with rate cuts if such trends continue.
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