CHICAGO, Aug. 28, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Serious consumer-level delinquency rates (60+ DPD) for mortgage loans—while still at historically low levels—have gradually risen from 0.89% in Q2 2023 to 1.14% in Q2 2024 and 1.27% in Q2 2025. As mortgage delinquency levels have risen, a new analysis by TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) highlights the direct correlation between payment-to-income (PTI) ratios and mortgage delinquency. PTI compares a borrower’s monthly debt obligations to their gross monthly income and can help lenders more accurately identify consumers who may be at higher risk of falling into delinquency.
The analysis, conducted throughout 2024, focused on how rising debt levels and fluctuations in PTI across various credit products—such as credit cards, Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), and student loans—may serve as early warning signs of financial stress. These trends were evaluated specifically among the nearly 57 million mortgage consumers who were current on their loans at the time of the study, providing a broad and relevant sample for assessing emerging risk factors.
The study revealed a strong and consistent link between changes in PTI for non-mortgage products, such as credit cards, and subsequent increases in mortgage delinquency rates in the following year. This finding underscores the importance of monitoring PTI trends over time across a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, as increases in non-mortgage debt obligations can be a leading indicator of potential trouble in mortgage performance.
| As Consumer Payment-to-Income Ratios Increased for Credit Cards, The Likelihood of Mortgage Delinquency One Year Later Followed | ||||
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