Canadian luxury market performance led by Montreal and Calgary as attainable housing prices, measured confidence support sales
2025 Mid-Year Highlights
- Escalating tensions in the Canada–U.S. trade dispute, mounting economic uncertainty and intensifying geo-political conflicts eroded consumer confidence and sidelined many Canadian homebuyers in the first half of 2025.
- Montreal’s luxury market outperformed national trends in the first half of 2025, as residential sales over $1 million increased 26% year-over-year, and sales above $4 million saw annual gains of 22%.
- Following a record-setting seller’s market in 2024, Calgary’s luxury housing market came into balance over the first half of the year as residential sales over $1 million saw a modest 3% uptick, while $4 million-plus sales were up 43% year-over-year. Sustained population growth from recent years continued to underpin local housing demand.
- In the Greater Toronto Area, the ultra-luxury residential market diverged from broader trends, recording twelve properties sold over $10 million on MLS® in the first half of 2025, up 200% from four sales in this price segment in the same period last year. However, this outlier was in contrast to a broader decline in luxury sales, as $4 million-plus transactions were down 28% year-over-year and buyers’ market conditions became endemic.
- Vancouver’s luxury market also contracted sharply in the first half of the year. Following a modest renewal in January, declining consumer confidence resulted in a steep 51% annual decline in sales over $4 million. The city recorded two sales over $10 million on MLS during this time, compared to seven ultra-luxury properties sold above this price in the first half of 2024.
- The cities of Toronto and Vancouver’s top-tier condominium markets remained under pressure in the first half of 2025 as rising inventory and fading demand slowed absorption; sales over $1 million sustained annual declines of 26% and 24%, respectively. Calgary condominium sales over $1 million were down a nominal 8%, while Montreal defied this trend, recording annual gains of 22% in its $1 million-plus condominium segment as relatively affordable prices and steady interest rates enabled buyers and sellers to upgrade into the top-tier market.
TORONTO, July 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Deepening Canada-U.S. trade tensions and mounting economic and unemployment uncertainty triggered a nation-wide slowdown in residential sales activity through the first four months of 2025, as national consumer confidence in current economic conditions, personal financial positions and the short-term employment outlook fell to record lows. Despite easing monetary policy and steadying mortgage rates following two consecutive Bank of Canada decisions to hold its overnight lending rate at 2.75%, consumer apprehension and persistently high benchmark housing prices in excess of $1 million weighed on the Toronto and Vancouver markets through much of the first half of the year, discouraging buyers from pursuing upward housing mobility and slowing market activity as a result. In comparison, relatively attainable benchmark housing prices in Montreal (CMA) and Calgary, reported at $580,100 and $583,000 in May 2025 by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), played a role in supporting upward mobility, sales activity and consumer confidence overall.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: 2025 Mid-Year State of Luxury Report, residential sales in Canada’s largest luxury real estate market declined in the first half of 2025 as uncertainty slowed activity across much of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). However, the region’s ultra-luxury real estate market defied headwinds, while sales activity in several of Toronto’s most prestigious neighbourhoods remained resilient. While residential sales over $1 million and luxury sales above $4 million fell 23% and 28% year-over-year respectively in the GTA, the $10 million–plus segment gained ground with twelve MLS-recorded sales over $10 million, up 200% from four properties sold during the same period last year. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, off-market sales transactions in this elite tier saw notable gains.
In Vancouver, residential sales over $4 million fell 51% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, with two transactions above $10 million recorded on MLS compared to seven in the same period in 2024. This represented the steepest annual decline among Canada’s major metropolitan real estate markets where sales in the $4 million-plus segment fell, while others saw gains. Sales of properties priced above $1 million also fell 26% compared to the same period last year.
Montreal’s luxury housing market defied national headwinds in the first half of 2025, posting consistent sales gains across all property types in the $1 million-plus segment. As mortgage lending rates eased, relatively attainable housing prices enabled buyers to progress into higher-end markets, supporting market momentum and confidence. In the first half of 2025, residential sales above $1 million climbed 26% year-over-year while transactions over $4 million increased 22%, reinforcing seller’s market conditions and robust price gains.
Despite vulnerabilities in Alberta’s resource sector due to fluctuating oil prices, strong gains in employment and an increase of 1.4% in GDP are projected for the province in 2025, according to the Conference Board of Canada. Furthermore, the province of Alberta saw a net, year-over-year gain of 28,496 new residents in the first quarter of 2025 alone, according to Statistics Canada. These advantages helped buffer Calgary’s luxury real estate market from other economic pressures, however, the city receded from the heated seller’s market conditions of 2024. Overall, in the first half of 2025, residential sales over $1 million were up 3% year-over-year as the market rebalanced. Ten properties sold over $4 million, compared to seven sold in the first half of 2024, a 43% improvement.
“Canada’s luxury real estate market continued to show resilience in the first half of 2025, despite persistent macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty,” says Effi Barak, President of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Montreal and Calgary led performance across the country, with healthy sales activity supported by relatively attainable housing prices and measured consumer confidence. These conditions enabled upward mobility and sustained demand across the luxury market. While overall activity in Toronto and Vancouver remained subdued in the first half of the year, premier neighbourhoods in both cities continued to attract interest. In Toronto, ultra-luxury sales outperformed the prior year, underscoring the ongoing confidence of high-net-worth buyers in premier assets.”
“A modest month-over-month uptick in national sales in May indicates that some motivated buyers are beginning to re-engage—though activity remains below year-ago levels,” added Barak. “In today’s environment, real estate continues to serve as a stable store of long-term value and diversification. We expect selective resilience to persist, grounded in the essential role that housing plays in Canadians’ financial and personal lives.”
Vancouver
Economic and geopolitical uncertainty weighed heavily on the City of Vancouver’s conventional and luxury housing market in the first half of 2025. Consumer sentiment and sales activity remained largely restrained, as buyers paused and awaited greater economic clarity– conditions that did not meaningfully improve in light of heightening global volatility. Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reported that as of May, year-to-date housing sales were amongst the slowest starts in a decade and inventory across Metro Vancouver surged to a ten-year high. This June, GVR reported that residential sales in the region were down 9.8% from June 2024 levels.
In the first half of 2025, luxury residential sales over $4 million (condominiums, …