Despite opposition, Donald Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ passed the US Congress. Now all eyes will be on the trade deals that the United States signs with various nations. On his part, Trump has mentioned that the tariff letters would start going out to various countries shortly. But can the TACO trade play out yet again? Remains to be seen. Elsewhere, China is supposedly planning nationwide subsidies to boost birthrates in the country and Japanese are buying stocks in droves, as the nation sees the biggest jump on record in individual shareholdings. Trump proclaimed earlier in the week that the deal for ceasefire in Gaza was close, after Israel agrees on terms. Neither side accepted the proposal announced on Tuesday by Trump, who has admonished Hamas that if the militant group does not buy into the offer, its prospects will get worse. Back home, aside of the trade deal with the US and Q1 updates, there will be the outcome of the India-England match to watch out for.
Here’s the top talking points for the week:
Trump-Musk Feud And The Big Beautiful Bill
The US Congress on Thursday passed his sweeping $4.5-trillion ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ of tax cuts and spending reductions, with the Republican-led House narrowly passing the legislation 218–214 and sending it to him for signing. The vote marks a major legislative victory for the president in his second term, securing funding for his immigration crackdown, making his 2017 tax cuts permanent, and delivering new tax breaks he pledged during his 2024 campaign. This bill passage was preceded by an online feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Remember, Musk had threatened to use his vast resources to launch primary campaigns against Republicans supporting the bill and has even suggested forming a new “America Party” to oppose it. Trump has retaliated by threatening to strip Musk’s companies of government subsidies, including tax credits for electric vehicles, and hinted at using the Department of Government Efficiency to audit Tesla and SpaceX’s funding. Musk doubled down, threatening to start a new “America Party” to challenge lawmakers supporting the bill and posting a poll on X where 80% supported the idea. He also sarcastically remarked that escalating the feud was “so tempting” but refrained for now. However, Musk extended an olive branch on July 2, praising Trump’s negotiation skills after Trump claimed to have brokered a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, showing a complex dynamic.
Opposing US Through India?
Foxconn asked hundreds of Chinese engineers and technicians to return home from its iPhone factories in India. The move, which began about two months ago, has seen over 300 Chinese workers leave, with mostly support staff from Taiwan remaining in India, and is likely to slow down the training of local workforce and transfer of manufacturing technology from China. The withdrawal of Chinese staff will affect efficiency on the assembly line, but not impact the quality of production in India, and comes at a bad time for Apple as it prepares to ramp up production of the new iPhone 17 with its manufacturing partners in India. Is this China’s attempt to send a message to the US on trade and balances?
Large Profits — And Then Blocked Out
SEBI just barred Jane Street Group entities from accessing the Indian securities market and ordered them to cough up Rs 4,843.57 crore in alleged unlawful gains. Apparently, Jane Street raked in profits worth Rs 43,289.33 crore through trading in index options on Indian exchanges between January 2023 and March 2025. Now, they’re prohibited from buying, selling, or dealing in securities directly or indirectly. SEBI also asked them to deposit the alleged unlawful gains into an escrow account, and the funds can’t be released without their approval. This prohibition is effective immediately and will stay in place until SEBI says otherwise. Jane Street disputes SEBI’s findings and plans to engage further with the regulator. The investigation revolves around alleged market manipulation, with SEBI taking steps to preserve market faith and protect investors. Stocks like BSE, brokerages benefitting from high frequency trades and custodians could all get impacted due to this order.
Defence Stocks Will Be On The Offence?
So NATO’s making a big move by boosting military spending to 3.5% of GDP, and adding another 1.5% for security needs – that’s roughly $800 billion annually! This is a game-changer. One can argue that aside of boosting defence spending, there are indirect implications of the same. Tighter public finances could be one, as higher military spending could lead to bigger deficits, higher interest rates, and less fiscal flexibility, impacting currency markets and equity flows in developed economies. The stimulus in advanced economies will likely dwarf that in emerging markets, which could have implications for global economic dynamics and, ofcourse, sustained spending will likely fuel rapid growth in defense manufacturing, especially in Europe. But it might well be an advantage for European suppliers. And in India’s case, the Defence Acquisition Council approved 10 capital-acquisition proposals worth Rs 1.05 lakh crore.
How Were The Q1 Updates?
Bajaj Finance added 4.69 million customers in Q1FY26, with assets under management jumping 25% year-over-year. Trent’s Q1 update was wobbly, for a stock priced at premium valuations, leading to the stock correcting in double digits. Others like HDFC Bank showed a 2% sequential growth, which did not move the stock. And as my colleague Hersh Sayta tells me, Bandhan Bank, Yes Bank and Bank of Baroda gave weak updates, where as CSB and Poonawala gave a very strong quarterly update. On the retail stocks front, aside of Trent, Avenue Supermarts’ update was weak, where as V2 Retail gave a strong quarter. It will be interesting to see how the quarterly results come out.
As we wrap, here is a small detail inspired from a global publication. Apparently, cruises are becoming super popular among young people, with 67% of cruise travelers being Gen X or younger, and 36% under 40. Carnival Cruise Line recently reported stellar earnings, beating estimates with a strong forecast. The company’s resilience in the face of economic headwinds is impressive, with record-breaking full-year revenues of $25 billion and net income of $1.9 billion.
Seemingly, cruise lines are totally catering to younger audiences! Royal Caribbean’s got innovative ships with FlowRider surf simulators and rock climbing walls, while Norwegian Cruise Line offers freestyle cruising with Entourage teen clubs and VR experiences. Disney Cruise Line is a hit with families and teens, offering unique experiences, and MSC Cruises has teen clubs and F1 simulators. Virgin Voyages is designed for a younger crowd with modern amenities and activities — it’s a whole new world of cruising — and one that you would not think possible!
Until next time…
Niraj Shah
. Read more on Opinion by NDTV Profit.