After the S&P 500 notched a nine-day winning streak on Friday, it sparked a debate among market experts. While some believe that it could be a precursor to a recession, others vehemently disagree, citing historical data to support their arguments.
What Happened: The Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., David Rosenberg, highlighted the rarity of such streaks and their historical association with recessionary periods.
According to Rosenberg, a consecutive nine-day streak has occurred only 0.25% of the time in the past century. Labeling it as a “3 sigma event,” he claimed that “80% of the time this dynamic happened in recessionary environments …not to mention just ahead of the October 1987 crash!” This led him to question the current “bullish” market sentiment.
However, Ryan Detrick from Carson Research countered this in a May 5 post, calling it “simply wrong/lazy analysis”. According to him, such nine-day streaks have …