Interpreting economic data is challenging on a good day—harder still when crucial reports go missing.
Yet, even without key labor market updates amid the ongoing government shutdown, the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on October 30.
Fed Likely to Cut Rates Again Despite Missing Jobs Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish its September Employment Situation report on Friday, leaving both markets and policymakers without fresh insight into the labor market—and marking the first such delay in nearly 30 years.
During the last two government shutdowns, the BLS successfully delivered employment data on schedule. During the 35-day shutdown under President Trump from December 2018 to January 2019—the longest in U.S. history—the BLS still released the December Employment Situation report on time, on Jan. 4, 2019.
Similarly, during the 16-day 2013 shutdown under President Obama, the October jobs report was published as planned on Nov. 8.
The last time the BLS delayed a jobs report was during the government shutdown of January 1996, when the December 1995 Employment Situation was pushed back …