Satoshi Nakamoto’s massive Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) stash has long been dormant, and prediction markets suggest that the status quo will hold through 2026
Punters Bet Dormancy To Continue
Odds that Bitcoin’s mysterious creator moves their BTC at any time this year stood at only 9% on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket. Kalshi bettors weren’t far off, assigning an 8% probability to the outcome.
Over $2.6 million has been wagered on the outcome on Polymarket. The market will resolve to “Yes” on-chain analytics firm Arkham verifies an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction from any wallet linked with Nakamoto.