The U.S. economy faces an “uncomfortably high” 48% probability of slipping into a recession within the next 12 months, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Predicts 48% Chance Of Recession
Zandi shared this concerning forecast on X, citing Moody’s newly unveiled leading economic indicator, which is derived from a machine learning algorithm. While historically such high probabilities haven’t always led to a recession, the current figure represents an unprecedented level of risk.
His latest warning builds upon his persistent concerns about a deteriorating labor market, which he has described as being in a “jobs recession.”
Shrinking Workforce Signals Looming Economic Recession
Earlier this month, he pointed to revisions in June’s data revealing a shrinking workforce …