The July 9 deadline for the 90-day tariff pause is approaching as global trade diplomacy intensifies. While President Donald Trump evaluates options on reciprocal tariffs, nations across Asia and Europe are discussing deals that protect their interest, while balancing ties with both Washington and Beijing.
So far, the market shows no signs of anxiety, as the temporary tariff freeze, initiated in April, triggered one of the sharpest market rallies this year. The S&P 500 surged over 28% off April lows, driven by investor optimism that a broad global trade breakdown could be avoided.
The implied volatility VIX Index – a typical fear gauge which shows the implied market move over the next 30 days is below 16.75 as of Wednesday, July 2, near the yearly lows.
Trump’s Compliance Bucket
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last week that the administration is prepared to finalize deals with up to 10 major partners before the deadline.
“President Trump has made clear that if agreements aren’t reached in time, letters will be sent dictating terms,” Lutnick told Bloomberg. Countries, he added, would be “sorted into proper buckets” depending on their compliance with U.S. trade expectations.
One key goal of the …