The U.S. labor market hit the brakes hard this summer, showing cracks not seen since the pandemic. In August, nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000—down from July’s weak 79,000 gain—and June was revised to show a net loss of 13,000 jobs, the worst monthly print since December 2020.
The three-month average now sits at 29,000, a level so low that it virtually seals the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The first move is widely expected to come at the September 17 meeting with a 25-basis-point reduction, followed by additional cuts in October and December.
Lower-rate expectations are keeping Wall Street upbeat, even as the labor market stagnates. Seasonality fears—since September …