Adani Power Ltd. is entering a sustained, multi-year earnings upcycle as India’s power demand structurally rises and baseload requirements tighten, believes brokerage firm Antique Broking.
Once a stressed thermal power producer, the company has repositioned itself as the most efficient private-sector baseload power producer, backed by scale, cost leadership and long-term visibility, said the brokerage’s latest report, as the firm initiated a ‘buy’ call on the company with a target price of Rs 187, indicating a potential upside of 30% on the counter.
India’s power consumption is being reshaped by electric vehicles, data centres, AI and manufacturing, creating steady demand that renewables alone cannot meet. This has revived the strategic importance of coal-based baseload capacity, an area where Adani Power is emerging as the clear private-sector leader, says the report.
The company is executing the largest thermal expansion by a private player, largely through brownfield projects that keep costs low and timelines tight. This approach, along with captive coal linkages, strengthens dispatch competitiveness and supports merchant and contracted capacity alike, as per the brokerage.
Antique highlights Adani Power’s dominance in state-led thermal PPA awards, where it has secured the bulk of recent contracts. A significant share of both operational and upcoming capacity is already tied up under long-term PPAs, offering strong earnings visibility. New contracts also carry higher fixed charges, improving cash-flow stability even if plant utilisation moderates.
The balance sheet turnaround is another key pillar of the story. Regulatory resolutions and the successful revival of distressed assets have normalised tariffs, unlocked receivables and structurally lowered capital employed per unit of capacity. This has set the stage for expansion without stretching leverage, aided by strong internal cash generation.
With a largely de-risked execution pipeline, assured fuel supply and improving return metrics, Antique believes Adani Power is well placed to compound earnings steadily through the cycle.
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