HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 an ounce, up from $3,015, citing “elevated geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and rising government debt.” The bank also increased its 2026 estimate to $3,125 an ounce from $2,915, while projecting a turbulent path ahead.
“We anticipate a wide and volatile trading range of $3,600/oz to $3,100/oz for the rest of the year,” HSBC said in a note, as reported by Reuters.
Spot gold traded around $3,350 at 9:30 AM EST on Tuesday. The metal reached a record high of $3,500 in April, driven by surging demand from investors, central banks, and geopolitical hedgers.
However, while prices remain historically high, HSBC warned that additional gains above $3,500/oz may reduce physical demand, particularly for jewelry, coins, and small bars in markets such as India and China. Consumers are highly price-sensitive, and even modest spikes tend to dampen gold buying.
The shift in demand and a search for substitution have been evident in a recent surge in platinum’s popularity. With gold jewelry becoming …