Synopsis: Inox Wind aims Rs. 5,000 cr revenue in FY26 with 20–22% EBITDA margins, needing Rs. 1,800 cr in Q4 amid execution delays. Strong order book, O&M scale, and new turbine launch contrast cautious broker outlook and revised execution estimates.
The shares ot the company are engaged in the business of manufacturing Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and are a wind energy solutions provider servicing IPPs, Utilities, PSUs, Corporates and Retail Investor are in the spotlight after it aims for guidance of Rs. 5,000 cr revenue in FY26 with 20–22% EBITDA margins.
With a market capitalisation of Rs. 16,729 cr, the shares of Inox Wind Ltd closed at Rs. 96.80 per share, increasing from its previous close of Rs. 96.65 per share. The stock recorded a 42% decline over the past year, fell 21.5% year-to-date, dropped 32% in the last six months, and decreased 7% in the past month.
Guidance
For the fiscal year 2026, the company is projecting consolidated revenue to surpass Rs. 5,000 crore, marking a robust year-on-year growth of over 35%. Alongside this, it has significantly raised its full-year EBITDA margin guidance to 20–22%, up from the earlier estimate of 18–19%. Looking ahead to FY 2027, the company expects consolidated revenue to grow by around 75% compared to FY 2026, while maintaining EBITDA margins in the 20–22% range.
Inox Wind reported revenue of around Rs. 3,200 crore in the first nine months of FY26. To meet its full-year guidance of Rs. 5,000 crore, the company would need to achieve nearly Rs. 1,800 crore in the January-March quarter alone, indicating a sharp ramp-up in execution.
Inox Green has demonstrated significant operational progress, boasting a large and diversified order book of 3.2 GW while adding 600 MW in the current fiscal year, with marquee clients including Aditya Birla Group, Amplus Energy Solutions, Jackson Energy, and FirstEnergy. The company plans to launch its new 4X, 4.45 MW turbine commercially in 2026, further strengthening its technology portfolio.
Its operations and maintenance (O&M) portfolio has reached 13.3 GWp across wind and solar projects in India, reflecting substantial scale and expertise. Additionally, the demerger and merger of Inox Green’s substation business into Inox Renewable Solutions is nearing completion, which will result in an automatic stock exchange listing, marking a key milestone in corporate restructuring.
JM Financial Commentary
JM Despite margin improvements, brokerages remain cautious about execution. JM Financial noted that December-quarter revenue came in at Rs. 1,200 crore, below both the company’s own estimates and market consensus.
Execution during the quarter stood at 252 megawatts, compared with 189 megawatts a year ago, taking total execution for the first nine months of FY26 to around 600 megawatts. Delays were largely attributed to customer site readiness issues, which impacted equipment supply.
JM Financial has revised down its execution estimates for Inox Wind, expecting to execute approximately 900 MW in FY26, 1,100 MW in FY27, and 1,200 MW in FY28. This is lower than earlier estimates of 1,050 MW, 1,500 MW, and 1,600 MW for the respective years, and also below the management’s initial guidance of 1,200 MW for FY26 and 2,000 MW for FY27.
Challenges such as connectivity, right of way (RoW), and power purchase agreements (PPAs) have contributed to the slowdown. Consequently, JM Financial has downgraded the stock from ‘Buy’ to ‘Add’ and reduced its FY28 earnings per share estimate to Rs. 5.0 from Rs. 7.4.
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