Major brokerages have gone back on their U.S. recession forecasts after a 90-day tariff pause between U.S. and China.
What Happened: Goldman Sachs reduced its U.S. recession odds from 45% to 35%, and Barclays ruled out a recession completely. J.P. Morgan now predicts the likelihood at less than 50%, according to Reuters.
The revised predictions come after both countries agreed to reduce tariffs: the U.S. dropped its duties on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China lowered its rates on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%.
Goldman also raised its 2025 GDP forecast by 0.5 points to 1%. It now projects three Fed rate …