The global copper market could experience a notable surplus over the next two years, as analysts anticipate rising production and weakening demand owing to rising international trade tensions.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) concluded its biannual meeting in Lisbon this week, revising the projections. It now expects a surplus of 289,000 metric tons in 2025, more than double the 138,000 surplus in 2024. For 2026, it forecasts a smaller but elevated surplus of 209,000 tons owing to concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs and reduced copper usage in key global markets.
ICSG attributes the widening surplus primarily to increasing mine and smelter output. Global copper mine production is forecast to grow by 2.3% next year to 23.5 million tons, with major contributions from the ramp-up of the Ivanhoe’s …