VanEck released long-term capital market assumptions projecting Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) could reach $2.9 million by 2050 in its base case, implying a 15% compound annual growth rate from current levels near $88,000.
Base Case Built On Settlement And Reserve Adoption
VanEck’s base case assumes Bitcoin will settle 5-10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050, while central banks allocate 2.5% of their balance sheets to Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
The projection represents a structural shift from speculative asset to institutional monetary instrument.
VanEck models Bitcoin’s penetration into two markets: global medium of exchange and central bank reserve assets.
The firm’s bear case projects $130,000 by 2050 (a 2% CAGR), while the bull case targets $53.4 million (a 29% CAGR) if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP.
Global M2 Explains 54% Of Bitcoin Price Variance
VanEck’s analysis shows …