Synopsis: Crude oil rose 0.81% to Rs 8,933 as Israeli strikes on Lebanon threatened the US-Iran ceasefire. Persistent Strait of Hormuz disruptions and steady fuel demand increased supply risks.
Crude oil markets climbed on April 10, 2026, as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon jeopardized the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire. This geopolitical volatility keeps supply risks high, particularly with the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20% of global oil, still facing heavy tanker disruptions. Despite Goldman Sachs’ recent forecast cuts, the ongoing threat of proxy conflict ensures a firm risk premium remains in every trading session.
The Strait of Hormuz is the global energy market’s most sensitive chokepoint. Here, even the perceived risk of a partial blockage can decouple prices from actual inventory levels. Israeli strikes on Lebanon have reintroduced a dangerous proxy conflict element, putting immense pressure on the current ceasefire. This geopolitical tension prevents traders from fully pricing in a return to normal supply, maintaining a continuous “fear premium” on Brent and domestic crude futures as the threat of regional escalation lingers.
Crude oil settled at Rs 8,933, up 0.81% or Rs 72 for the session. US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels while gasoline and distillate stocks fell, indicating solid underlying fuel demand.
Open interest slipped slightly by 0.01% to 8,361, suggesting that short covering drove the move. Immediate support is at Rs 8,675, with resistance at Rs 9,384. A break above resistance could push prices toward Rs 9,834.
Market Overview
Crude oil remains one of India’s most consequential imported commodities, directly influencing inflation, current account dynamics, and sector costs across aviation, logistics, and petrochemicals. West Asia geopolitical developments and Strait of Hormuz operability are the dominant near-term price drivers.
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