Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) could reach a $75 billion valuation by 2030 despite Tuesday’s 20% crash on Clarity Act news, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s analysis.
The $75 Billion Math
Hougan’s valuation model uses three key assumptions: stablecoin market size, Circle’s market share, and revenue margins.
Citigroup (NYSE:C) forecasts the stablecoin market will grow from roughly $200 billion today to $1.9 trillion by 2030.
Moreover, Circle’s USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) currently holds 25% of the market, trailing only Tether’s USDT (CRYPTO: USDT).
Hougan assumes Circle maintains this 25% share, giving the company control of about $475 billion in stablecoins by 2030.
Circle earns interest by investing customer deposits into U.S. Treasuries, which currently pay around 4%.
However, the company pays roughly 60% of revenue to …