As the U.S. government shutdown suspends Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data releases, including the critical September jobs report scheduled for Friday, the Chicago Fed has stepped in with a final real-time forecast, predicting a steady unemployment rate of 4.34% for September 2025, based on 11 job market indicators.
However, private data sources paint a concerning picture, signaling a “low fire, low hire, low gear” labor market with weak holiday hiring plans that could impact payrolls through year-end.
Chicago Fed Sees Steady 4.34% Unemployment
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted the urgency of the forecast, noting, “It doesn’t look like we’ll get official BLS jobs data this week,” emphasizing the reliance on real-time data amid the shutdown.
The Fed’s analysis, released late Thursday, shows the unemployment rate unchanged from August, with layoffs at 2.10% and hiring rates for unemployed workers at 45.22%, both slightly down from the prior month.
The forecast details include a 28.2% probability of no change in the BLS-reported rate, per the final model.