According to BlockTower founder Ari Paul, crypto markets are at a critical juncture and face two sharply different outcomes.
50/50 Between Structural Top And Macro-Driven Recovery
Paul on X outlined two “steelman” scenarios to explain the ongoing rangebound and weak price action.
Scenario A: The cycle top may already be in, potentially for this generation of crypto assets.
Crypto has benefited from peak tailwinds, including mainstream awareness, political support and looser regulation.
Yet real-world adoption remains limited.
Institutional and national experiments, including El Salvador’s Bitcoin initiative, have delivered mixed results, and many corporations have tested crypto without finding durable utility.
Under this view, further downside remains possible, particularly if larger liquidation events unfold.
Scenario B: The current downturn is a high-timeframe correction within a broader macro-driven uptrend.
In an …