Despite recent moves by President Donald Trump to ease tariff pressure, recession expectations for the U.S. economy remain elevated, with betting markets still pricing in a greater-than-even chance of an economic contraction in 2025.
As of April 14, on the CFTC-regulated prediction platform Kalshi, the market titled “Recession This Year?”—which defines a U.S. recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth before the end of 2025—currently anticipates a 56% probability of such an event occurring.
Although that figure is down from 66% a week ago, it remains nearly three times higher than it was at the beginning of the year, when Trump was inaugurated for his second term.
A related Kalshi market, which speculates not if but when a recession will begin, assigns a 30% chance that the first quarter of 2025 already marked the beginning of a recession.
The White House recently announced two major developments aimed at alleviating tariff-related pressures. The first is a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to facilitate trade negotiations.
The second is a temporary exemption on key tech imports from China—such as semiconductors and smartphones—following Washington’s move to raise general Chinese import duties to as high as …