The U.S. equities are trading at fresh highs while numerous fundamental and technical indicators are flashing red.
Bankruptcy filings are up—446 large companies have collapsed so far in 2025, while market breadth has cratered to levels not seen since 2008. Valuations are superbly stretched as Robert Shiller‘s CAPE ratio is hovering near dot-com peaks, and Warren Buffett‘s market cap-to-GDP gauge signals a warning.
Timing The Bubble
Add it all together, and the ingredients of exuberant optimism are there. Still, Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, warns about the illusion of timing bubbles.
“If you decide to go out – that’s one decision. But if you decide to go out, you’ll eventually have to decide when to get back in. It turns out, the record of people pulling out and then going back in is not good,” he said in a recent interview with Adam Taggart.
The latest in the long line of indicators flashing red is the S&P 500-to-Gold ratio. For Danish economist Henrik Zeberg, an expert on long-term market cycles, the signal is one in a generation.
Lessons From The Past
Over the past century, this …