The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) halving cycle once set the rhythm for the entire crypto space. Every four years, issuance fell, narrative swelled, and markets marched in near-lockstep toward long winters and blow-off tops. That script is now over. The halving clock is broken.
Cycles still exist, as human reflex and liquidity never sleep. Still, the tidy four-year cadence is broken now, and liquidity regimes, policy shocks, and overlapping sector narratives have replaced a single, subsidy-driven metronome.
Mechanical supply cuts mattered when the market was small and demand windows were narrow; however, today, a far larger audience can express their exposure through regulated wrappers. Pair this with model-driven allocations that shift on weekly timelines, and the picture begins to emerge more clearly.
Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the like have rocked the boat when it comes to halving patterns and expectations. This year, spot Ether ETFs clocked $5.4 billion in monthly inflows amid a 20-day streak, as large institutions have rotated their exposure within weeks in response to changing spreads and market volatility.
Flow regimes now dominate. Streaks of fund inflows and outflows — driven by rebalancing, basis trades, and volatility targeting — produce …