Bitcoin’s late Wednesday bounce to $144,700 was fleeting as a gauge of long-term market sentiment flipped bearish for the first time since June 2023. DOGE, XRP and SOL followed suit, while ether traded more resiliently.
Still, the CoinDesk 20 Index was up about 0.7% on a 24-hour basis at press time while the CoinDesk 80 Index gained 0.4%.
Analysts said they nevertheless remained optimistic about BTC’s long-term prospects.
“Donald Trump’s approval of crypto assets being included in 401(k)s adds a further structural support although this will take time to be felt in the market,” said Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex. “The net effect is that over time, this will shift flows from speculative to strategic, pension-style allocation, embedding crypto deeper into U.S. capital markets.”
Derivatives Positioning
- The growth in BTC and ETH futures open interest stalled at levels above 700K BTC and 14.2 million ETH, which is consistent with the directionless trading in spot prices before the start of the central bankers’ confab at Jackson Hole.
- Open interest in LINK futures remains near record highs, with the token price rising to nearly $27 on Wednesday, the most since January. Other top 10 tokens, excluding BNB, saw open interest fall in the past 24 hours.
- HYPE leads crypto majors with annualized funding rates exceeding 25%. That shows traders are increasingly seeking bullish exposure in the token.
- On CME, the recovery in the BTC futures noted on Wednesday has stalled, with the three-month premium receding to nearly 7%. Meanwhile, ether futures OI continues to grow and is nearing the 2 million ETH mark. These diverging trends point to a growing institutional preference for ether over bitcoin.
- On Deribit, the 180-day bitcoin options skew dipped to -0.42, indicating the strongest demand for put options, or downside insurance, since June 2023. Longer-dated ETH options continued to show a bias for calls.
- Flows over the OTC network Paradigm featured demand for BTC puts financed by selling calls and mixed activity in the ether options market.
- Volmex’s seven-day implied volatility indices for bitcoin and ether have remained steady at around 36% and 70%, respectively, indicating that the market does not anticipate a significant volatility spike from the Jackson Hole event.
Token Talk
- YZY Money, a Solana memecoin tied to Ye (formerly Kanye West), debuted Thursday with a 6,800% surge in price before slipping under $1, indicative of the speculative churn around celebrity tokens.
- The token announcement on Ye’s X account sparked speculation of a hack before posting a video it which he appeared to confirm the launch. Questions remain whether the clip was AI-generated.
- The token structure mirrors the TRUMP coin: 70% supply allocated to Ye, 10% to liquidity, 20% for sale. Insiders said Ye initially demanded 80% before agreeing to 70%.
- Wallet data shows clear advance access. Wallet 6MNWV8 spent 450,611 USDC at $0.35, later selling some of its holding for $1.39 million to reap a $1.5 million profit when price gains on the remainder are included. Another whale bought $2.28 million worth and sits on $6 million in gains.
- Liquidity was seeded single-sided with only YZY, allowing developers or large holders to withdraw value at will — a design critics liken to the controversial LIBRA token in Argentina.
- Retail buyers absorbed the losses: One wallet lost nearly $500,000 within two hours after buying at $1.56 and exiting at $1.06.The episode highlights how insider-heavy allocations and liquidity gimmicks expose fans and traders, even as hype briefly drove the token’s market cap toward $3 billion.
- Wormhole challenged LayerZero’s $110 million bid for Stargate with plans for a higher counteroffer, asking the community to delay its governance vote for five days to complete due diligence and ensure token holders evaluate both proposals on fair terms.
- Stargate’s appeal lies in scale: $4 billion processed in July, $345 million locked, and a treasury with $92 million in stablecoins and ether plus $55 million in STG and other assets.
- LayerZero’s proposal would transfer treasury and future revenue to itself, which critics say undervalues Stargate and shortchanges token holders.
- Wormhole argues STG holders “deserve a more competitive process” and positions its bid as delivering greater long-term value.
- A merger would fuse Stargate’s unified liquidity pools with Wormhole’s integrations across dozens of blockchains, creating one of the largest cross-chain hubs.
- The Wormhole Foundation claims such a combination would “unlock unrealized value” and drive both immediate and lasting benefits for STG and Wormhole token holders.