Even as U.S. stocks trade at all-time highs, JPMorgan’s new mid-year outlook suggests a quiet storm may be forming under the surface—one that could see gold soar, the dollar weaken, and markets reset in the second half of 2025.
S&P 500 May Cool Off—But Not Crash
In a report shared Tuesday, the investment bank forecasted the S&P 500 — as tracked by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) — to finish the year at 6,000, implying a modest 3.5% pullback from current levels around 6,220.
That would still mark a positive year overall, underpinned by a 12% increase in earnings, with further growth expected in 2026.
“The economy and consumers have shown resilience, and corporates delivered healthy pre-Liberation Day growth of 12% despite the implied aggregate tariff rate surpassing 20%,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of Global Markets Strategy at JP Morgan.
Yet there are reasons for caution. “We remain open to the economy slowing in the second half of …