The Conference Board Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% month-over-month in May, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline and signaling intensifying recession risks for the U.S. economy.
What Happened: The index has declined in 37 of the last 39 months, representing one of the worst streaks on record since 1960, according to data shared by The Kobeissi Letter. The LEI has dropped at a 5% annualized rate over the past six months, falling below the threshold that historically signals an impending recession.
The index now sits 16% below its peak and has reached its lowest level in nine years. Historically, such prolonged LEI declines have preceded every U.S. recession since 1960.