U.S. retail sales for May are expected to post a sharp monthly decline, potentially reinforcing concerns that tariff headlines and economic uncertainty are starting to pinch consumer spending.
That would mark the second monthly drop in 2025 after January’s 0.9% plunge. Monthly declines in retail sales have been rare over the past two years, with only five months showing negative prints.
A fresh pullback—particularly at the start of the second quarter, following an already negative first quarter—could signal that deeper cracks are forming in the U.S. consumer landscape.
Retail Sales Look Weak Again—Here’s What’s Coming
The median Wall Street economist expects the Bureau of Economic Analysis to report a 0.7% decline in May retail sales Tuesday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Bank of America is calling for a 0.6% drop. More importantly, they expect the “control group,” the slice of sales that actually matters for GDP calculations, to come in flat.
“We expect a soft retail sales report for May,” said Adhyta Bhave, economist at Bank of America, in a report last week.
Bank of America’s internal credit card data …