As newly announced trade tariffs rattle markets, the U.S. labor market stands as the last major pillar of strength in an economy increasingly defined by President Donald Trump‘s policy decisions.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, offering a critical read on whether hiring momentum is holding up—or if mounting government layoffs are beginning to weigh on the broader labor market.
March Nonfarm Payrolls: What Are Economists Expecting?
Consensus forecasts tracked by TradingEconomics anticipate a slowdown in hiring, with total nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 135,000, down from the 151,000 jobs added in February.
Job gains over the past 6 and 12 months have averaged 175,000 per month, suggesting a cooling trend is underway. The latest ADP employment report—which covers a subset of more than 25 million private-sector employees—showed a gain of 155,000 jobs in March.
Government hiring remains a key risk factor. Public-sector payrolls rose by just 11,000 in February, and economists warn the figure could turn negative for the first time since April 2024. Government hiring has averaged 33,000 jobs per month over the past year, and—with the exception of April 2024—has not recorded a monthly decline since December 2022.
The unemployment …