Despite a powerful 22% surge in the S&P 500 since the April lows—driven by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a 90-day pause on new tariffs—only half of the index’s stocks have managed to rise above their 200-day moving average, indicating a market rally that remains potentially incomplete.
This technical indicator, often used to gauge long-term trends and market breadth, currently shows that just 49.9% of S&P 500 components are in what traders would consider a bullish trend.
That figure remains below both the five- and 10-year averages of 60%, suggesting a wide swath of the market has yet to participate in the rebound.
Breadth Gauge Shows Room To Run
Over the past four years, the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average has moved within a wide 10% to 92% range. The extreme lows—seen in June and September 2022 at just 10%—came during periods of heightened recession fears and monetary tightening.
The recent cycle bottom occurred just last month, when the figure dipped to 15% following April’s sharp, tariff-driven selloff.
The highest reading in the last four years came in May 2021, at 92%, during a time of peak post-pandemic optimism. More recently, …