Ed Yardeni, the veteran Wall Street strategist known for his bullish ‘Roaring 2020s’ thesis, is dialing back optimism and raising stagflation alarms as a new wave of U.S. tariffs threatens to throttle corporate margins and push inflation higher.
In his latest Yardeni’s quicktake, the analyst reduced the odds of his Roaring 2020s scenario for the decade from 65% to 55%, while raising the probability of a stagflationary outcome—defined as slowing growth coupled with elevated inflation—to 45%.
That shift, Yardeni said, stems from President Donald Trump‘s newly announced 25% tariff on imported autos and parts, effective April 3, adding to the burden of earlier tariffs on steel and aluminum.
The latest tariff salvo—soon to be followed by a likely 20% blanket duty on all imported goods—is expected to raise input costs for businesses across sectors, with consumers likely to face rising prices.
Read also: US Economy Faces ‘Fork In The Road’: Is Yardeni’s ‘Roaring 2020s’ Still Possible?
How Tariffs Are Fueling Inflation Fears
Yardeni now sees the 2025 inflation rate, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation …