Toronto , May 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) —
2025 First Quarter Highlights
- A fragile rebound in consumer confidence and real estate activity unravelled in the first quarter of 2025, as the escalating Canada–U.S. trade war and threats to the Canadian economy sidelined homebuyers and sellers, leaving only isolated pockets of resilience in the housing market.
- The Greater Toronto Area ultra-luxury residential market defied broader regional housing trends, posting year-over-year gains with five properties sold over $10 million on MLS® in the first three months of 2025, compared to the fact that there were no sales above this price point in the same period last year. However, luxury sales over $4 million saw an annual decline of 15% overall.
- Despite volatile oil prices and mounting uncertainty, Calgary remained a sales stronghold across both conventional and luxury markets as population gains bolstered demand. Residential sales over $1 million held steady with a modest 2% year-over-year gain in the first quarter, while one property sold over $4 million, compared to two sold in the first quarter of 2024.
- Montreal outperformed national trends as interest rate declines spurred upward mobility in the entry-level top-tier housing market. Sales over $1 million were up 11% year-over-year in the first quarter, while $4 million-plus sales were unchanged year-over-year at eight properties sold.
- Despite a brief January uptick, consumer sentiment in Vancouver took a downturn in February, leading to a 48% year-over-year drop in first-quarter sales over $4 million, as both buyers and sellers held off on transactions.
- While the $1 million-plus condominium markets in the cities of Toronto and Vancouver posted annual declines of 20% and 27% respectively in the first quarter, Montreal and Calgary’s top-tier market defied the trend, with first-quarter sales up 27% and 13% respectively.
A promising rebound in Canadian real estate early at the start of 2025 was swiftly derailed by rising Canada–U.S. trade tensions, the threat and implementation of tariffs and counter-tariffs, and growing macroeconomic volatility. Although these shocks to the country’s housing market fundamentals resulted in a broad pullback in residential transactions, segments of Canada’s metropolitan luxury real estate sector showed surprising resilience, underscoring the strength of select markets and consumer groups in the face of turmoil. As the broader housing market braces for greater uncertainty this spring, select luxury segments stand out as outliers of greater stability – and may still emerge as breakout performers in an otherwise darkening landscape.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada‘s Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2025 State of Luxury Report, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) ultra-luxury market for properties over $10 million stood out as one of the nation’s rare real estate strongholds in the first quarter of 2025, defying a general pullback across the broader housing market amidst growing economic turbulence. While residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) and $1 million saw annual declines of 15% and 29%, transactions over $10 million increased year-over-year. As ultra-high-net-worth homebuyers in the country’s largest regional economy demonstrated strategic adaptability and financial resilience, five properties sold over $10 million on Multiple Listings Service (MLS) between January 1– March 31 where none had sold in the first quarter of 2024. Private and off-market sales over $10 million also strengthened, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts.
Calgary’s luxury real estate market remains well-positioned to withstand tariff threats and economic risks given its growth momentum from 2024. Following a record-setting population boom in 2024 that boosted Calgary’s population by 6.14% year-over-year, the city remains positioned for growth in 2025, as the province of Alberta, added 28,496 new residents in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024 according to Statistics Canada, the largest net gain of population over other Canadian provinces and territories. This positioned Calgary’s luxury market as an outlier for growth in the first quarter of 2025, as residential sales over $1 million achieved an uptick of 2% year-over-year. One property sold over $4 million, compared to two sold in the first quarter of 2024.
Montreal’s housing market outperformed national trends and stood out for steady sales activity across all property types in the first quarter of the year. Falling interest rates unleashed pent-up consumer demand across the city’s conventional market as its relatively affordable cost of housing facilitated purchases. This further enabled upward housing mobility into the city’s top-tier and luxury segments. Despite a pullback mid-quarter, between January 1– March 31 residential sales over $1 million increased 11% year-over-year and the market leaned in favour of sellers overall. Residential sales over $4 million were stable with first quarter 2024 levels at eight properties sold.
Despite an initial uptick in sales activity at the start of 2025, activity across Vancouver’s conventional and luxury residential market stalled as the threat of tariffs reverberated across the city’s lagging economy. As waning confidence in the job and housing delayed buying activity, the accumulation of property listings across the housing market entrenched buyers’ market conditions. As a result, residential sales over $4 million were down 48% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, with none of these recorded over $10 million on MLS, on par with the first quarter of 2024. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales declined 30% year-over-year. These represented the most significant annual declines for luxury residential sales out of Canada’s major metropolitan real estate markets.
“The Canada-U.S. trade dispute has cast a shadow over consumer confidence and housing market activity, contributing to a broad-based slowdown in both conventional and luxury real estate sales this spring,” says Effi Barak, President of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Yet, even amid this uncertainty, select segments of the top-tier market remain resilient—driven by pent-up local demand, population growth, and enduring appeal among financially secure luxury buyers. These markets also benefit from competitive advantages relative to other Canadian cities.”
“Toronto’s ultra-luxury single-family home market, particularly in its most prestigious neighbourhoods, remains poised for activity,” adds Barak. “While buyers are increasingly selective—negotiating assertively and prepared to wait for the ‘perfect’ home—there is underlying strength in this segment. Meanwhile, Montreal has exceeded expectations this spring, standing out across luxury condominiums, attached, and single-family home sales. The recent easing of interest rates has unlocked upward mobility for sidelined buyers and reinforced Montreal’s momentum. Calgary’s top-tier market has also shown continued resilience, buoyed by population growth and renewed confidence following record-setting gains in 2024.”
According to Barak, the luxury condominium markets in Vancouver and Toronto are evolving into compelling long-term opportunities. Elevated inventory levels, soft demand, and the retreat of smaller-scale investors are placing downward pressure on prices, creating advantageous conditions for well-positioned buyers. “For those willing to navigate short-term volatility, this market offers strong long-term value potential. As U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures drive up construction costs, a slowdown in new development will constrain future supply—ultimately supporting the value of existing condominium stock.”
Vancouver
Vancouver’s luxury housing market showed cautious optimism to start the year, but this sentiment rapidly faded upon the imposition of U.S. tariffs. Canada’s escalating trade war with the U.S., a weakening outlook for the local economy and stringent housing policies and regulations all contributed to stifling consumer confidence and activity. Although the lower end of the luxury market saw some movement as buyers renewed their activity with monetary policy easing, both buyers and sellers remained hesitant overall, concerned about the impact of these geopolitical issues on the city’s economy, job market and housing values. As a result, Vancouver’s overall housing market cooled over the first quarter, weighed down by recent shocks.
According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) residential sales in Metro Vancouver were down 13% year-over-year, while the number of properties listed for sale increased close to 38% compared to March 2024. Within the City of Vancouver’s luxury market, the first quarter of 2025 saw residential sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) decline by 48% year-over-year from the first quarter of 2024 to 33 properties sold. There were no ultra-luxury $10 million sales on Multiple Listing Services (MLS) during this time, as was the case in the first quarter of 2024. 723 residential properties sold over $1 million between January 1– March 31, a substantial 30% year-over-year shortfall. Property sales between $1 million– $2 million continued to comprise the majority of the city’s $1 million-plus residential real estate market, accounting for 69% of these top-tier sales, up from 64% at the same time last year.
Despite a …