American consumers are growing sharply more pessimistic, with expectations about their financial future plunging to the lowest levels since October 2011.
Inflation expectations spike as job prospects darken, underscoring the economic challenges surfacing as President Donald Trump celebrates his first 100 days in office with a rally in Michigan.
In a report shared Tuesday by The Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7.9 points in April to 86, the lowest reading since March 2023 and part of a five-month losing streak.
The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ outlook on income, business and labor conditions for the next six months, collapsed to 54.4, a 13-year low not seen since October 2011. Historically, values below 80 have preceded recessions in the U.S.
Pervasive Pessimism Grips US Consumers
The April drop “was largely driven by consumers’ expectations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board. All three subcomponents—future business conditions, employment, and income—showed a sharp deterioration, she added.
“Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months was 32.1%, which is nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle …