The Fed holds firm, Micron crushes earnings and still gets punished, and the Iran war just hit Qatar’s gas supply.
Happy Friday. Here’s an observation about this week: oil spiked toward $100, gold crashed 6%, and a company that beat earnings estimates by 40% got sold off. If that doesn’t capture the mood, nothing does.
S&P 500 closed at 6,606 (-0.3%), Nasdaq 22,090 (-0.3%), Dow 46,021 (-204 pts). WTI crude near $97, Brent $106. Gold cratered to $4,570. Bitcoin slipped to $69,700. VIX touched 26.8 before settling at 24.9.
The Rundown
WAR/OIL › Iran struck Qatar’s LNG production facilities overnight, wiping out roughly 17% of the country’s output and prompting evacuation warnings across Gulf energy sites. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now on alert. WTI crude touched $99 intraday before pulling back to roughly $97. Brent traded above $106. Israeli PM Netanyahu signaled late in the session that the war may end sooner than expected, which helped stocks claw back from session lows. But with Hormuz traffic still down an estimated 70%, the supply picture isn’t fixed by optimism alone.
FED › The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% yesterday and projected just one more cut for the rest of 2026. Powell was blunt about the Middle East: higher energy prices will push up inflation, and that could delay any easing. February PPI already came in hot before the war’s full effects hit. The market heard “higher for longer” and traded accordingly. Two consecutive losing days for all three major averages, with the S&P now sitting below its 200-day moving average for the first time since last spring.
EARNINGS › Micron (MU) reported a quarter that would’ve been a celebration in any other tape. EPS of $12.20 crushed the $8.66 estimate. Revenue of $23.86 billion beat by $4 billion. The company guided even higher for Q3. Stock dropped 5.6%. Meanwhile, Accenture (ACN) missed EPS by 24% and rallied 4.1%. In this market, positioning matters more than the print. Guidance and forward visibility are the only things getting rewarded.