In a Sunday macro note framed explicitly as a thought exercise, Citrini Research modeled a speculative scenario in which AI-driven commerce structurally undermines card network economics.
Interchange in the Crosshairs
The central payments argument: AI agents optimizing consumer transactions around the clock would eventually identify the 2-3% card interchange rate as an obvious cost to eliminate. “Once agents controlled the transaction, they went looking for bigger paperclips,” wrote Citrini.
In the scenario, agents migrate toward stablecoin settlement on Solana or Ethereum Layer 2 networks, where transaction costs are “measured in fractions of a penny.”