The S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) could plunge to 3,500 by 2028 if the AI revolution succeeds too well, according to a chilling “pre-mortem” scenario released by Citrini Research.
The firm warns that a “Global Intelligence Crisis” is forming, where rampant productivity gains flow solely to compute owners like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), leaving the consumer economy to collapse under the weight of mass white-collar unemployment.
How Too Much Intelligence Could Kill The Market
The analysts describe a terrifying “negative feedback loop” with no natural brakes.
As AI capabilities improve, companies rationally cut headcount to boost margins, but these displaced workers stop spending.
Since machines don’t buy houses or iPhones, this creates “Ghost GDP”—output that looks good on national accounts but never circulates through the real economy.
The result is an “Intelligence Displacement Spiral” where the S&P 500 peaks near 8,000 in 2026 before the underlying consumer demand evaporates, triggering a deflationary depression that rivals the Great Financial Crisis.
The first dominos to fall in this scenario are the “seat-based” …