The S&P 500 Index tracked by SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) could plunge as low as 3,700 points even in a “mild recession” scenario, representing a potential 37% decline from its January levels, according to Wolfe Research.
What Happened: Chris Senyek, the firm’s Chief Investment Strategist, warns that the index could fall between 3,700 and 4,100 amid economic contraction, as reported by CNBC, reflecting heightened concerns over trade policy uncertainty.
“If uncertainty caused by tariff policy were to push the U.S. economy into recession in 2025, we’d expect SPX EPS to fall …