Assam 2026: Himanta Vs Gogoi Race Tightens With NDA Holding Slight Edge — Key Factors At Play

by | January 14, 2026 11:06 pm | Latest Posts, Market, Trending News

Assam Elections 2026: The Himanta Biswa Sarma-led government may have an edge in terms of positive perception over its performance, but the lead narrows on public voting intention, according to a survey.

Vote Vibe’s “State Vibe” survey said that since one in five voters in Assam is still undecided, the contest remains highly fluid. The northeastern state will go to polls in March–April 2026 for its 126-seat Assembly, with the current House’s tenure ending in May.

Government Performance: 58% Positive Overall

According to the Vote Vibe report, the Bharatiya Janata Party government’s performance draws 58% positive ratings (“Excellent + Good”), driven by 38.1% “Excellent” and 19.9% “Good” assessments. A combined 23.4% rate it “Poor/Very Poor”, while a further 12.6% are neutral/average.

  • Youth (18–24) are the least satisfied: 42% positive vs 40% negative, effectively split.

  • Seniors (55+) are the most supportive, with around 80% positive ratings.

The report also points to strong approval (70%+) across the SC/ST/OBC/General communities, while Muslim voters are largely dissatisfied (32% positive, 48% negative).

CM Preference: Sarma Leads Gogoi

In the CM preference matchup, Himanta Biswa Sarma (BJP) leads Gaurav Gogoi (Congress) by about six points: 48.2% vs 42.0%, which the survey describes as a “tight contest.” The demographic splits are:

  • Male voters tilt towards Gogoi (report: 48% for Gogoi vs 42% for Sarma).

  • Female voters and 18–24 youth show a clear preference for Sarma (55% vs 35% among youth).

  • Seniors (55+) give Sarma a large edge (62% vs 23%).

  • General/OBC voters strongly back Sarma (71–74%).

  • Muslim voters overwhelmingly back Gogoi (79% vs 10%).

What Matters To Voters

On issues, Vote Vibe survey finds unemployment is the single biggest concern at 24.7%, far ahead of the pack. Floods and rehabilitation (a perennial Assam concern) ranks second at 12.8%, while corruption comes third at 11.7%.

Two items stand out for their intensity in specific groups:

  • “Fair investigation of Zubeen’s death” is listed at 11.2%, reflecting a high-emotion issue in the public mind.

  • Illegal immigration (9.7%) and development (6.5%) remain salient—often seen as traditional campaign themes in the state.

Demographic patterns in the report suggest the campaign conversation may splinter:

  • Youth prioritise corruption (15%) and the Zubeen investigation (13%) more than average.

  • Muslim voters show elevated concern about communal tension (11% vs 5.8% overall).

  • SC voters flag alcoholism/drugs (16%) and illegal immigration (14%) as leading concerns.

Voting Intention: NDA Ahead But 19% Are Undecided

On “if elections were held today,” the survey places the NDA at 33.4% and the INDIA bloc at 30.9%, a lead of 2.5% points. AIUDF stands at 4.0%, Others at 8.3%, while undecided voters account for 19.1% (plus 4.3% “can’t say”).

The report suggests:

  • The NDA is weakest among 18–24 youth (22%), where the INDIA bloc is at 28%.

  • The NDA is strongest among seniors (55+) at 54% (INDIA bloc 32%).

  • Across SC/ST/OBC/General, NDA leads (43–47%); among minority voters, INDIA leads (40–45%).

  • Gender shows a mild split: men lean slightly towards the INDIA bloc, while women lean slightly NDA, per Vote Vibe’s estimates.

  • Anti-incumbency signal: fewer than 4 in 10 “very likely” to back their MLA. A major caution flag for all parties, especially incumbents, is the report’s finding that only 38.3% say they are “very likely” to vote for the incumbent MLA.

Meanwhile:

  • 22.3% say they will switch parties.

  • 22.4% want a different candidate from the same party, a marker that candidate replacement/ticket denial could be high.

What drives the vote: government track record dominates, except among youth. Asked about the primary factor shaping their vote, 40.5% cite the overall work done by the Himanta Biswa Sarma government as the biggest consideration. Development/issues (11.2%) and candidate quality (8.6%) follow.

But once again, youth are different:

Only 20.6% of 18–24 voters are swayed primarily by “government work.”

Among seniors (55+), this jumps to 56.8%.

Muslim voters show a more fragmented decision pattern in the report (government work 20.5%, development 19%, party 9.1%), implying persuasion may hinge on constituency-level issues and alliance choices.

Congress’s Problem List

The survey respondents identify Congress’s biggest hurdles as:

  • Infighting/factionalism (25.5%)

  • Weak organisation (13.1%)

  • Lack of a resonating message (11.3%)

  • BOPF returning to the NDA (10.4%)

  • Delimitation impact (7.6%)

If these perceptions persist, they could blunt the opposition’s ability to consolidate anti-incumbency sentiment, especially with multi-cornered contests and smaller parties in play, says the report.

SIR Exercise Impact

The report records majority support for the SIR (Special Intensive Revision) electoral-roll exercise: 44.8% yes, 22.2% neutral, 11.3% no, and 21.8% can’t say. Support is especially high among SC (63%), OBC (52%) and General (61%) voters. Among Muslim voters, support is lower (24%) with higher neutrality and opposition.

Final Verdict

The survey showed the incumbent NDA benefits from relatively strong government approval and Sarma enjoying popular support.

Although, the alliance faces two vulnerabilities — youth disaffection and a large undecided bloc (19%) that can swing late.

Addressing public issues like employment and flood relief and political choices in candidate selection and alliances will require NDA to walk an extra mile to strengthen its electoral position.

. Read more on Assembly Elections 2026 by NDTV Profit.