Bettors on Polymarket now assign over a 50% probability to a U.S. military strike on Iran this month, following a new advisory urging Americans to leave the protest-hit country immediately.
Rising Tensions: US Strike Odds Surge
The odds that the U.S. will strike Iran by Jan. 31 have risen to 54%, up 9 percentage points in the last 24 hours. The probability of such a military action happening by Jan. 23 jumped from 29% to 43%
Roughly $13.7 million has been wagered on this bet. The market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. initiates a drone, missile or air strike on Iranian territory, including its embassies and …