Prediction markets have substantially raised the odds of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei losing power this year as the Iranian regime battles a deepening economic crisis and civic unrest.
Over $1 Million Bet On Regime Change
The odds that Iran’s Supreme Leader is removed from power by the first half of the year rose to 36% on Polymarket, up from 28% the day before and 21% a week ago.
The probability of Khamenei losing power by March 31 has risen to 25%, whereas bettors see only a 12% chance of it occurring by the end of the month.
Over $1 million has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to “Yes” if Khamenei resigns, …