Synopsis:- A potential reset in Venezuela’s oil sector could reshape energy markets. Despite holding 18% of global reserves, current output is under 1 million bpd. Sanction relief may unlock discounted crude access, recover $500 million in dues, but also risk 2027–28 supply-led pressure on oil prices.
The sudden January 2026 US military action against Venezuela marks a major geopolitical escalation. The capture of President Nicolás Maduro triggered intense fighting, global criticism, and diplomatic unease. The episode has heightened regional instability in Latin America while raising serious concerns over sovereignty, international law, and broader implications for energy markets and global power dynamics.
According to Jefferies, despite holding nearly 18% of global proven oil reserves, Venezuela contributes less than 1% to global crude supply, with output below 1 million bpd. Hence, even a potential US takeover of oil assets is unlikely to materially impact crude prices in the near term, limiting immediate market disruption.
The brokerage believes that once sanctions ease, US oil majors could step up investments in Venezuelan fields, lifting output over 2027–28. This additional supply may put downward pressure on crude prices, unless OPEC+ intervenes with production cuts to balance the market.
Reliance Industries and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation are viewed as major Indian beneficiaries of a potential US-backed overhaul of Venezuela’s oil sector. According to Jefferies, easing or lifting sanctions on Caracas could improve crude supply access, strengthen cash flows, and support valuation upside for both companies over time. Here is the list of stocks that may benefit from the US takeover of Venezuelan oil:
Reliance Industries Ltd
With a market capitalisation of Rs 21,58,429.39 crore, the stock was trading at Rs 1,594.20 per share. During the session, it touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,611.20, up from the previous close of Rs 1,592.45.
For Reliance Industries, the investment case hinges on access to deeply discounted Venezuelan crude, which its Jamnagar refinery is technically designed to process. Given that Venezuelan crude is heavy, sour, and acidic, only a few complex refineries globally can handle it, leading the grade to historically trade at a $5–8 per barrel discount to Brent, as noted by Jefferies.
Reliance Industries had partnered with PDVSA in 2012 to meet nearly 20% of its daily crude needs from Venezuela, but the arrangement ended after tighter US sanctions in 2019. With indications that Venezuelan crude may again be sold globally, Jefferies believes Reliance could lock in discounted long-term supplies, supporting refining margins and cash flows, even as the stock trades at around 27x FY24 earnings and 14.7x EV/EBITDA.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd
With a market capitalisation of Rs 2,98,152.62 crore, the stock was trading at Rs 237.00 per share, decreasing around 1.86 per cent as compared to the previous close of Rs 241.50.
Following the attack, the US has taken control of Venezuela’s oil assets, putting Indian energy interests in focus. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has meaningful exposure through ONGC Videsh, which holds a 40% participating stake in the San Cristobal project. In addition, ONGC Videsh, Indian Oil Corporation, and Oil India together own 11% in the Carabobo-1 field.
If sanctions are eased and additional crude enters the market, oil prices could face supply-led pressure. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation may, however, recover around $500 million in unpaid dividends from the San Cristobal field relating to the period up to 2014, after which production was halted and no further payouts accrued. That said, Jefferies cautions that a revival in Venezuelan output poses a medium-term risk, as higher supply could weigh on global crude prices.
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