With the ongoing shifts in the markets, the U.S.’s reliance on foreign capital is reversing, leading to lower asset prices. However, its unique position as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency provides a significant advantage in navigating this shift, according to an expert.
What Happened: In a recent thread on X, Bob Elliot, co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited and former investment committee member of Bridgewater Associates, argued that, unlike typical emerging market balance of payments crises, the U.S. can prioritize domestic economic conditions due to its debt being denominated in U.S. dollars.
A balance of payments crisis in an emerging market can often trigger aggressive rate hikes to retain foreign capital, curb consumption, and limit currency depreciation needed to service foreign-currency debt, typically crushing local assets.
However, Elliot argues that the U.S. situation differs fundamentally despite sharing the characteristic of high reliance on foreign capital. Since U.S. debt is not issued in a foreign currency but in its own, “U.S. policymakers are in the privileged position to prioritize domestic conditions through the adjustment process,” said Elliot.
While concerns exist about foreign selling pushing rates higher, as …