WASHINGTON, April 24, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — After starting 2025 in a generally solid position, the U.S. economic outlook has worsened amid sharp declines in consumer and business sentiment, rapidly rising inflation expectations, and sky-high policy uncertainty. As a result, the Q2 update of the 2025 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook has revised its 2025 equipment and software investment forecast to 2.8% (down from 4.7%) and its U.S. GDP forecast to 1.2% (down from 2.7%). The report, which was released today by the Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation, forecasts that a “growth pause” by the end of 2025 is more likely than a sustained downturn, although the probability of a near-term recession has clearly risen.
Leigh Lytle, President of the Foundation, and President & CEO of the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association, said, “Extraordinarily high economic uncertainty related to U.S. trade policy has sent shockwaves through the economy, prompting large swings in financial markets and a sharp reduction in equipment finance industry confidence. At the same time, labor markets remain healthy, consumer spending bounced back in March, and the manufacturing sector appears to be holding its own. The elephant in the room is tariffs: if the administration ultimately moves forward with the “reciprocal” tariff rates announced in early April, they will weigh heavily on the economy’s growth prospects this year. On the other hand, if bilateral or multilateral deals are struck with key trading partners and these additional tariffs are avoided, the business climate would quickly improve.”
Highlights from the 2025 Outlook include:
- U.S. economy: Tariffs and their …