WASHINGTON, July 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The Equipment Leasing & Finance Foundation today released its Q3 update of the 2025 Equipment Leasing & Finance U.S. Economic Outlook, forecasting a mechanical rebound in Q2 growth driven by stronger net exports before slowing over the remainder of the year due to pressure of higher tariffs and an increasingly cautious consumer behavior.
Despite reasonably healthy topline employment, wage growth, and several other hard data indicators, real U.S. GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1 2025. This dip was primarily due to weaker consumer spending and a tariff-fueled reduction in net exports. However, even as GDP shrank in Q1, equipment and software investment growth jumped nearly 22%, fueled by businesses looking to front-load purchases to avoid new tariffs. As a result, the Foundation has revised its 2025 equipment and software investment forecast to 6.3% (up from 2.8%) and its U.S. GDP forecast to 1.3% (up from 1.2%).
“Equipment and software investment soared in Q1 as businesses accelerated spending to get ahead of tariff-induced price increases. Looking ahead, the picture is murkier, however: investment likely moderated this spring, and the slowdown in consumer spending is an ongoing concern,” said Leigh Lytle, President of the Foundation, and President & CEO of the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association. “Still, capex demand should get a boost if the Fed cuts rates later this year, and key provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including 100% expensing and EBITDA-based interest deductibility, will benefit the industry …